The Turkish economy continues to maintain the growth process it entered after the banking crisis in 2001. At the same time, influenced by some global events, low growth figures are also observed from time to time. On the other hand, some macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, interest rates and unemployment continue the negative upward trend experienced recently. From this point of view, one of the most important indicators for all economic segments is exchange rates.
While the rise in exchange rates in our country decelerated between 2002 and 2013, it moved with a larger increase between 2014 and 2016. Exchange rates, which reached their historical levels in January 2017, started to decline after January. Exchange rates can show sudden changes from time to time. Such a change in exchange rates can cause uncertainty and uneasiness. On the other hand, those who work with foreign exchange may be more adversely affected by these changes. Changes in exchange rates, especially in developing countries, adversely affect foreign trade relations.
In order to observe efficiency in exchange rates, first of all, the factors affecting exchange rates should be determined. According to the determined factors, states should change their plans or make new plans. Changes in the dollar exchange rate create various effects in the global arena. The most prominent of these is foreign trade. Global effects such as foreign investments, unemployment, imports, inflation and current account deficit occur in sudden changes in exchange rates.
Exchange rate increases are not effective for a regular export alone. For this reason, exporters need a stable exchange rate and business environment, not constantly increasing exchange rates. In theory, with the fluctuation in exchange rates, it is thought that the competitiveness of Turkish industrial products will increase in export activities. This theory is generally true, but the attitude of the exporter is important here. Exporters generally lower their prices in terms of foreign currency in sudden changes in the exchange rate and prefer to increase their competitiveness. This may lead to a development contrary to what is expected.
Considering the sudden change in exchange rates, it is known that the effect of slowing down imports of the increase in exchange rates is higher than the effect of increasing exports.